Converging History and Economics

Lieutenant-general Sir John Glubb, in his essay 'Fate of Empires,' identified the life cycle of empires by examining the rise and fall of civilizations over a span of 4000 years. Glubb observed striking parallels between various civilizations, from Ancient Rome's military prowess to modern democratic dominance.

In what Glubb termed 'The Lifecycle of Civilization,' he asserted that most civilizations endure for 10 generations, approximately 250 years, progressing through six distinct stages. Each empire commences with The Age of Pioneers, advances to The Age of Conquests, transitions to The Age of Commerce, leading to The Age of Affluence, fostering The Age of Intellect, and culminating in The Age of Decadence.

The Age of Pioneers and Conquests are initiated by bold visionaries who lay the foundation of a civilization. The Age of Commerce empowers society through trade, commerce, and skill development. The Age of Affluence witnesses the emergence of socioeconomic disparities between the affluent and the less privileged. The Age of Intellect allows for intellectual pursuits and knowledge expansion. The final stage, The Age of Decadence, is marked by excessive consumption, a bloated military, ostentatious displays of wealth, and widening wealth gaps.

The baby-boomer generation was born into the era of decadence, characterized by unchecked consumerism, soaring property prices, and moral ambiguity. This generation has mismanaged resources to a greater extent than any other period in history, jeopardizing the well-being of future generations. Nevertheless, it is believed that valuable lessons can be learned from past mistakes, leading to a reallocation of resources for progress and equilibrium within our lifetime.

The convergence of anthropology and engineering has brought about significant economic shifts known as general-purpose technology platforms, which revolutionize global lifestyles by establishing entirely new economic infrastructures. Historically each Industrial Revolution is driven the emergence of transformative technologies in communication, energy, and transportation logistics.

The First Industrial Revolution unfolded in 19th century Britain with innovations like steam-powered printing and telegraphs revolutionizing communication, while steam engines and coal mining introduced coal power as a new energy source. The idea of utilizing steam engines and coal power for locomotives revolutionized national transportation.

The Second Industrial Revolution occurred in 20th century America, marked by the invention of the telephone, which revolutionized communication and facilitated rapid connections. The discovery of cheap Texan oil by Shell, alongside Henry Ford's mass production of automobiles, transformed transportation systems.

However, future generations may view our era as the 'Fossil Fuel Generation,' characterized by a society heavily reliant on fossil fuels, which is inherently unsustainable. The ongoing advancements in communication technology, renewable energy sources, and electric vehicles suggest that we may be on the cusp of another Industrial Revolution, with the potential to reshape communication, energy consumption, and transportation methods.